Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513
Recent core news segmentation (bullish+bearish hedging pattern)
Heavy positive mainline (core driving force for this round of rebound)
1. The dual data of CPI and PPI have been implemented, and inflation has clearly cooled down
June CPI month on month -0.4% (the first monthly deflation since 2020), core CPI year-on-year 2.6% lower than expected; The month on month decrease in PPI is -0.3%, the core PPI is weakening synchronously, and the upstream and downstream inflation are declining synchronously, indicating a deterministic inflation turning point signal.
2. Market pricing: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July plummeted from 46% to within 12%, and the interest rate meeting on July 29th remained almost 100% unchanged; The continuous decline in US bond yields and the US dollar index has significantly relieved the valuation pressure on interest free cryptocurrency assets.
3. Market feedback: BTC rose from the 62000 range and reached a peak of 65518 US dollars. Short term short positions were concentrated and liquidated, with a single day short liquidation of over 200 million US dollars; ETH has risen stronger than BTC, and mainstream counterfeit stocks have risen to repair the market.
The CPI+PPI dual data has significantly weakened, and upstream and downstream inflation has cooled down synchronously, which belongs to the standard positive data combination;
The key reason why the rise was suppressed by the Federal Reserve's hearing;
Walsh publicly stated that a monthly decline in inflation cannot determine a reversal in inflation trend, and reserves the option to raise interest rates for the whole year;
The liquidity benefits brought by data are artificially hedged by hawkish rhetoric, and the market has been corrected from a unilateral surge to a high volatility pattern, with the upward space locked in and unable to break out of a continuous main uptrend.
Mid term (half month to July 29th Federal Reserve interest rate meeting)
After the release of two sets of inflation data, the probability of interest rate hikes in July has dropped to within 12%. By the end of July, the interest rate will remain unchanged at 100%, and the tightening pressure will be temporarily relieved
2. The market has moved up to a large range of 60000-67000 and fluctuated upwards, with ETF funds taking over the rebound. A sharp decline is the window period for low absorption
3. Suppressing the upper limit: The conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East has pushed up crude oil prices, and the increase in crude oil prices will reignite subsequent inflation data, limiting the height of bullish increases
Long term (1-3 months, determining the bull bear watershed)
If CPI and PPI continue to decline for 2-3 consecutive months, the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut cycle in the fourth quarter, US dollar liquidity will be loose, BTC will break through its previous high, and a new bull market will officially begin
2. If this is only a short-term decline and inflation rebounds again in the future: the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes, the cryptocurrency market continues the bear market bottoming out trend, and the downward support continues to move downwards
Summary of CPI and PPI
The CPI+PPI double cooling this time has completely lifted the negative pressure of the July interest rate hike, and the support at the bottom of the cryptocurrency circle has been consolidated; However, due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical oil risks, the market can only recover from volatility and will not immediately initiate a unilateral surge. As long as inflation data does not rebound in the future, the overall market center of gravity will continue to slowly rise.
Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513
QQ group number: 1065561939
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
