Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/L1CrUCgvqNKE
The broadcast will start at 22:00 tonight, with a complete review of the full process of FOMC decisions and market fluctuations in the early morning. Combining real-time market trends of Binance BTC and ETH, Federal Reserve policy wording, US bond yields, US Iran geopolitics, and ETF fund flows, we will conduct a multidimensional review, remove news noise, lock in the main trading line for medium and long-term landing, and redefine the complete attack and defense points.
In the early hours of the morning, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate as scheduled, which was in line with the market's consensus expectations. However, there were details of biased hawks in the dot matrix and press conference statements, ultimately leading to a typical "resolution surge, speech retreat" pulse market. Leveraged funds in the entire market experienced a double kill of long and short positions, and a large number of short-term traders suffered passive losses due to chasing news. The current price of BTC is around 63700 yuan, with the highest dip reaching 64700 yuan in the early morning and the lowest dip reaching 63267 yuan. The daily fluctuation range is 63200-64700 yuan. The pressure above 65700 has been thoroughly confirmed and upgraded in the early stage, and the short-term center of gravity has shifted downwards. 63200 has become the first key support. If it falls again, the downward space will be further opened up; 64500~64700 has become a strong short-term pressure, and if bulls want to return to the oscillation center, they must re stabilize in this range.
The current price of ETH is around 1903, with significantly greater elasticity than BTC. In the early morning, following the rise and fall of the big pie, the volatility greatly increased, and the four hour level Bollinger Bands opened their mouths. The short-term oscillation range widened to 1875-1940. ETH is more sensitive to US bond yields, and its volatility is stronger due to the hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve. There has been a sharp divergence in counterfeit currencies, with a larger range of high leverage currencies being injected, and the overall leverage risk in the market has significantly increased.
[Reviewing the early morning market fluctuations in this round, the logic of rise and fall can be divided into two dimensions]
Short term sentiment of news: interest rates remain unchanged, the market is expected to play a loose game in the short term, and funds are expected to rise first to realize the benefits; However, the Federal Reserve emphasized that there is still an upward risk of inflation, and the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year has been lowered again. The yield of US bonds has rebounded slightly, the US dollar has strengthened, and the valuation of risk assets is under pressure. The concentrated outflow of profit orders has caused a rapid decline, which belongs to a typical sentiment realization market with positive news landing. The combination of the US Iran geopolitical situation still supports the high operation of oil prices, inflation concerns cannot be completely dispelled, the Federal Reserve is difficult to turn to comprehensive easing, and cryptocurrency assets lack the macro liquidity drive for sustained growth.
Medium - and long-term funding situation: BTC spot ETFs still maintain a net inflow trend, and institutions have not left on a large scale due to the hawkish stance this time. Low level acceptance still exists, which blocks the possibility of extreme market crashes. Therefore, the market presents a volatile pattern of accepting large declines and selling pressure for large increases, and a one-sided trend still cannot be formed. The large amount of funds from institutions in the early morning is only for the purpose of rebalancing positions, not for centralized shipments, and the logic of long-term bottom support has not changed.
The dust of FOMC news has settled, and short-term emotional fluctuations have come to an end. Trading does not need to bet on news anymore, just return to the point and logic. At 10 pm tonight, we will completely break down all the details of the early morning trading market, remove subjective predictions, and use objective structures to clarify subsequent offensive opportunities and defensive bottom lines, and sort out standardized trading mainlines that can be repeatedly executed in the future
Tencent Meeting: 87587426575
QQ group: 1105107912
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
