The July non farm payroll report in the United States showed a decrease of 23000 jobs in the economy, which fell short of the expected increase of 80000 jobs, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 103000 people. Thomas Ryan believes that weak data is enough to prompt Federal Reserve officials to re-examine the labor market, while Jeff Schultz believes that low-level employment creativity maintains weak growth. Ellen Centner analyzed the weak data to ease the pressure of September interest rate hikes, while Adam Krizafuli described the report as extremely frightening. According to data from the Zhishang Institute, the market's expected probability of a September interest rate hike has fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.
AI interpretation: The substantial shrinkage of the job market and weak labor demand have directly shattered the expectation of economic overheating. The significant downward revision of the previous value reveals the deep depletion of economic growth momentum, and the deterioration of the employment environment has forced the Federal Reserve to abandon its aggressive interest rate hike stance. The market's bet on tightening policies quickly cooled down, and the focus of monetary policy shifted from anti inflation to anti recession. This data completely reverses the market's judgment on the path of interest rates, and the suppressive effect of a high interest rate environment on the real economy has become apparent.
