[JPMorgan Raises Storage TAM Forecast, Storage Cycle Extended to 2028]
According to Trend Research, JPMorgan's August 9 report raised the 2026-2028 storage TAM forecast by 4% to 8%, predicting the supply-demand gap will persist until the end of 2028. NVIDIA has halved SOCAMM memory from 1.5TB to 768GB and downgraded Rubin Ultra from 16-Hi to 8-Hi/12-Hi HBM4E. JPMorgan considers this a temporary measure by customers to address shortages, with AI CPU shipment growth at a 155% compound annual rate offsetting the reduction in per-unit content. DRAM ASP has risen year-over-year for 20 consecutive quarters. Samsung aims to include 60% to 70% of its capacity in LTAs, SK Hynix has signed contracts with approximately 10 customers, and Micron has completed 16 SCAs, with prepayments accounting for 20% to 25% of the total LTA value. JPMorgan forecasts a 42% year-over-year increase in HBM average prices in 2027, with Samsung's HBM order share reaching 37% to 38% between 2027 and 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix's cash return rates are expected to reach 16% to 20% over the next two years.
