According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 50.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 35.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 14.5%.
AI interpretation: The market's expectations for whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September are extremely tight, and the game between long and short sides has entered a white hot stage. The extreme closeness of this probability distribution directly reflects the market's confusion and high sensitivity to the current path of monetary policy. The uncertainty of interest rate decisions is exacerbating the volatility risk in financial markets, and investors are at a critical crossroads of policy shift. The follow-up policy guidance of the Federal Reserve will become the only core variable to break the current deadlock.
