According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 71.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 28.2%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 7.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 67.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 25.4%.
AI interpretation: This data reflects the market's pricing logic for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, clearly revealing the consensus to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term. The differentiation of interest rate expectations reflects the game between market stickiness to inflation and economic resilience, directly anchoring the tightening expectations of monetary policy. This pricing structure reinforces the sustainability of the high interest rate environment and suppresses the market's premature expectations for loose policies. Investors are adjusting their asset allocation based on this probability distribution to cope with the Fed's long-term policy tone of maintaining high interest rates.
