According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 89.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 10.5%; the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 73.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 8.4%.
AI Interpretation: The market has reached a high degree of consensus that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, and the policy path is within an extremely stable expectation range. Current interest rate levels are already fully reflected in asset pricing, and there is no possibility of an unexpected shift in monetary policy in the short term. This extremely high probability of maintaining the current rate is locking in the market's perception of the current tightening cycle, eliminating the risk of a sudden policy change. Investors are shifting their focus to the game of the subsequent interest rate path, and market sentiment remains stable as they await clearer policy guidance.
