Goldman Sachs analysis suggests the Democrats are highly likely to win the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections.

On November 2nd, Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that the probability of Democrats winning a majority in the House of Representatives is over 90%. If the Democrats win the House, the expiration of spending authorization on December 11th and the 2027 debt ceiling will become key legislative points of contention. Goldman Sachs predicts that a Democratic victory would increase spending by approximately 0.25% of GDP in 2027. Regarding tariffs, Trump is highly likely to release the results of the Section 301 investigation and impose new tariffs after the midterm elections, resulting in a net increase in the US effective tariff rate of slightly less than 2 percentage points. In the AI field, the focus of Congress will shift to AI regulation; if the Democrats win either house, investigations into large technology companies are expected.