Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/7277739262
Based on today's Federal Reserve decision, the market is currently on a critical 'storm eve'. In addition to the highly anticipated interest rate results, Powell's tone of speech is the key to truly igniting the market.
Based on existing information, the core prediction path is as follows:
Core Prediction: Analysis of Three Major Scenarios
Scenario classification, triggering conditions, BTC trend prediction, strategy reference
Dovish (high probability): Powell suggested that interest rates would be cut or "data dependence" would be emphasized in the future, but there was no hawkish comment. The rate would rise base note: probably above $79200, and challenge $80000. If it breaks through $80000, it may trigger a $1.2 billion short liquidation, pushing the price towards $81200- $82000. After breaking through $79300, you can follow up with a light position and set the stop loss at $76800.
Hawkish (low probability but high impact): emphasizes inflation stickiness (oil prices over $100), suppresses expectations of interest rate cuts falling below support: directly tests the lifeline of $76500. If lost, it may quickly drop to $75000 or even $72000. If it falls below $76500, you should decisively reduce your holdings and avoid buying against the trend.
Neutral ambiguity (most likely) maintains interest rates unchanged, with unclear and ambiguous wording that continues to fluctuate: continue to consolidate within the range of $76500 to $79200, waiting for the next catalyst (such as PCE data). Sell high and buy low within the range, but it is recommended to reduce the position and wait for the direction to become clear.
Special reminder: Historical data shows that in the past nine FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has fallen within 48 hours after the resolution eight times. We need to be alert to the "sell the facts" market, which means that after good news is realized, it may actually rebound.
[Key Background Data]
Financial Trend: This week, spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $263 million, ending a nine day record of inflows, indicating that institutions are becoming cautious before the results are announced.
Macro pressure: The situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices to the range of $100- $108, exacerbating inflation concerns and limiting the dovish space of the Federal Reserve.
- Another perspective: Some analysts also believe that given the low leverage ratio (low funding rates) in the current market and the support provided by institutional demand (such as Strategy's increase in holdings), if there is a positive trend, the upward resistance will be relatively small.
Market liquidity may sharply drop before and after the announcement of the resolution, so it is important to control positions. How to trade the current market and how to use indicators are being explained in the live broadcast room
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
