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Brothers, tonight at 7 o'clock, we will start broadcasting early. First, let's take a look at the market - it's so horizontal that it's suffocating.
BTC continued to fluctuate narrowly around $64000 today, with a 24-hour low of $63382 and a high of $64549. It is now reported at $63982, a slight increase of 0.95%. ETH stabilized synchronously, fell to 1849 and rebounded to 1882, now reporting 1862.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network has experienced a $203 million sell-off, with short positions accounting for 67% - short positions have been cleared, but prices have not risen, indicating that long positions do not have the strength to push upwards. Both long and short are waiting, waiting for a variable to break the deadlock.
Three variables are approaching
The first one is the intensification of internal divisions within the FOMC. Although the interest rate remained unchanged at the meeting on July 29th, the vote changed from unanimous approval in June to 9-3-3 committee members voting in favor of raising interest rates. This is the most split within the FOMC since 2026. The September meeting is just around the corner, and the market's pricing for interest rate hikes has risen from less than 20% at the beginning of the month to the current level.
Secondly, geopolitical risks are still fermenting. The ongoing US Iran conflict and high oil prices are driving inflation. Geopolitical news is constantly fluctuating, and fluctuations can be amplified.
Thirdly, institutionalization is changing the market structure. In the first half of 2026, institutions accounted for 72% of Wintermute's over-the-counter spot trading volume, a significant increase from 59% in 2025. Wall Street funds are becoming the dominant force, and the volatile characteristics of the cryptocurrency market are being weakened.
Tonight at 7 o'clock, explain three things clearly
1、 BTC has been sideways for three weeks, with an upper edge of 66000 and a lower edge of 62000. Which direction is the first to break through? What are the triggering conditions?
2、 What does the split in the FOMC 9-3 vote mean? The probability of a rate hike in September is increasing, what impact does this have on the position structure?
3、 After being horizontal for so long, where is the breakthrough single hanging? What is the stop loss setting? Give me a spot tonight. See you at 7 o'clock.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
