Ryan Kirkley: The cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a large-scale clearance, and Bitcoin is facing a critical support level test

MTS posted that the real yield of the US 30-year inflation protected treasury bond bonds rose to 3%, the highest level since the Great Recession. MTS believes that AI infrastructure financing is driving up long-term interest rates. As of July, massive cloud providers, data centers, and AI infrastructure projects have issued $308 billion in debt, an increase of approximately 13 times year-on-year, competing with long-term US bonds for funding.

Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating their transformation towards AI and high-performance computing, with transformational mining companies receiving higher valuations and more stable revenue expectations compared to pure mining companies. Over the past year, the stock prices of TerraWulf, IREN, and Cipher Digital have more than doubled, while MARA Holdings has fallen by about 40%. The price of Bitcoin mining hash has dropped from about $63 per PH/s in July last year to about $31.8, and the network computing power of Bitcoin has decreased from 1.14 ZH/s to about 900 EH/s. According to CoinShares data, mining companies with AI/HPC contracts have an average enterprise value multiple of 12.3 times, while pure Bitcoin mining companies have a value multiple of 5.9 times. The cumulative scale of AI/HPC contracts signed by the entire industry has reached $70 billion. Riot Platforms has signed a 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic, with a contract value of approximately $9.1 billion. If the price of Bitcoin returns to around $126000, the hash price may rebound to around $59/PH/s.

Kalshi, a predictive market platform, has submitted regulatory documents to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to apply for the launch of US500 perpetual futures tracking the MerQube US Large Cap Index. This product covers 500 large enterprises listed in the United States and tracks target prices through a funding rate mechanism. Kalshi was approved to launch cryptocurrency perpetual futures in May this year and has applied to launch perpetual futures for gold, silver, copper, and stock indices. Kalshi stated that the global perpetual futures trading volume will exceed $90 trillion by 2025, and the nominal trading volume of its products will exceed $1 billion within one week of launch. CME Group rose by about 1.26%, while Cboe Global Markets rose by about 0.12%.

[Bitcoin briefly breaks $65,000, short-selling whale reduces position by 200 BTC] According to Ai Yi's monitoring, Bitcoin briefly broke $65,000. A whale holding a short position worth approximately $125 million in BTC reduced their position by 200 BTC, incurring a loss of about $243,000 this time, with cumulative losses reaching $1.81 million. Currently, the whale still holds a short position of 312 BTC, valued at approximately $20.2 million, with an unrealized loss of about $368,000. The liquidation price is $65,078.

Bank of America reiterates its buy rating on Micron (MU), with a target price of $1550, which is approximately 61% higher than the stock price of $963. SanDisk expects an average annual growth rate of nearly 15% in future sales, with a gross profit margin of over 80% by the fiscal year 2030. Bank of America expects Micron's earnings per share for FY30 to reach $200 to $250, with the potential for a price to earnings ratio of 12 to 15 in the future. Bank of America expects Micron's free cash flow over the past 12 months to exceed $80 billion after the expiration of restrictions related to the CHIPS Act on December 9, 2026. Micron needs to pay attention to whether the high gross profit margin can be sustained, whether the management can implement the capital return plan, as well as HBM demand and price trends in the future.