[Probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September rises to 58.6%, probability of unchanged rates in October drops to 43.0%]
According to Jintou Data, CME 'FedWatch' shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 58.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 41.4%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in October drops to 43.0%, with the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike at 46.0% and a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike at 11.0%.
AI Interpretation: The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term monetary policy path have shown significant divergence, reflecting intensified investor debates over inflation persistence and economic resilience. The fluctuations in the probability of unchanged rates indicate that the market is reassessing the endpoint of the tightening cycle. Rising rate hike expectations are directly increasing pressure on short-term financing costs. This adjustment in expectations is forcing traders to revise asset pricing models to account for the policy risk of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. Current market sentiment is shifting from blind optimism to cautious defense, with capital flows further concentrating toward safe-haven assets.
