The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 70.9%

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On September 29th, the Asian bond market is expected to follow the decline of US bonds. The standoff between the US and Iran has kept oil prices high, intensified inflation concerns, and increased market bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. New Zealand treasury bond bonds opened lower, Australian treasury bond bond futures showed a decline, and the yield of US treasury bond bonds in all terms soared. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 5.27%, reaching a new high in 19 years; The 30-year yield has risen to 5.55%. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to continue tightening policies to curb inflation. Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Larkin stated that due to rising yields and oil prices, the overall market is struggling to gain significant momentum, with market attention focused on interest rates and energy prices.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved Coinbase Clearing LLC as a derivatives clearing agency, allowing it to use USDC for 24/7 clearing of fully collateralized contracts.

US President Trump has stated that Axios' reports of providing sanctions exemptions and unfreezing funds to Iran are untrue, and that they have not provided any conditions to Iran. He has demanded that Axios retract the false reports.

According to data from CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75% -4.00% at its October meeting is 29.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 70.9%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75% -4.00% until December is 5.0%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 36.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 58.7%.